Ukraine Predictions
Conventional Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Donbass (95%) to positions which render encirclement unfeasible (90%)
Contingent on above: Russia will undertake an operational pause of not less than 3 days. (defined as no major offensive operations on the eastern front, 90%).
When high-intensity hostilities cease Russia will control:
The North Crimea Canal (95%)
All territory east of the Dneiper (90%)
All crossing points over the Dneiper (85%)
A contiguous land territory linking Transnistria, Donbass and Crimea (75%).
Kiev (66%)
All Ukrainian territory east of Zhytomyr (50%).
(Control defined in the negative sense as Ukrainian governance absent, Ukrainian regular military forces absent but Russian regular military forces present).
(High intensity hostilities defined as operations which include any one of:
AFV fighting other AFV,
Both sides employing offensive support >100mm calibre
Both sides operating FW or RW aviation
More than 100 regular combatants die per day across all fronts.)
High intensity hostilities cease before:
01 Jul 22 (90%)
01 Jun 22 (80%)
01 May 22 (75%)
01 Apr 22 (50%)
Putin ceases to be President of Russian federation (90%).
And the new leader is pro-Western/anti-Ukraine annexation (95%).
Mass civil unrest in Belarus (15%)
Resulting in Belrusian regime change (75%)
A NATO member state attacks Russian targets in the Ukraine using
Aircraft (98%)
Ground forces (99%)
(attack defined as the use of conventional, chemical or nuclear weapons)
Footage will be released of successful Ukrainian TB2 attacks on more than 6 S300/400s (75%).
Ukraine conducts some action resulting in non-Ukrainian deaths or destruction of non-Ukrainian equipment in Belarus, Russia or Crimea (66%)
There is unrest (defined as >10 deaths due to deliberate and politically motivated action) in Chechnya or Dagestan (50%).
The ratio of confirmed Russian T72 to:
T80 losses will be >5:1 (80%)
T90 losses will be >5:1 (95%)
(All variants of each, confirmed: pictoral evidence on that website that’s doing that atm).
T14 will be deployed operationally (5%).